Decoupling from Dependence: The Global Semiconductor Industry Races to Diversify Amid Geopolitical Risks

The semiconductor industry is at a critical juncture, driven by the dual pressures of rising demand for advanced chips in artificial intelligence (AI) and the urgent need to mitigate geopolitical vulnerabilities. With Taiwan’s fabs, particularly TSMC, supplying over 90% of the world’s cutting-edge semiconductors, nations are rapidly investing in new fabs to reduce reliance on both Taiwan and China. While TSMC, Samsung, and Intel lead efforts to expand capacity in regions like the US, Europe, and Japan, these initiatives fall short of replacing Taiwan’s unparalleled output of 2 nm and below chips by 2030. Simultaneously, China’s struggle to compete at leading-edge nodes, compounded by export restrictions on critical tools, further underscores the fragility of the global semiconductor supply chain. These dynamics signal a transformative era as the free world works to establish more resilient and geographically diversified semiconductor ecosystems.

According to a recent article by FT (Source), the primary drivers for 2 nm technology development are the surging demand for custom and specialized chips, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), and the need to create competitive alternatives to current large-scale semiconductor manufacturers. Rapidus, for instance, is targeting a niche in the AI market by producing bespoke chips that prioritize efficiency and can outperform more generic chips, such as those produced by Nvidia, in specific applications.

The motivation also includes addressing capacity limitations from dominant players like TSMC, which prioritizes large orders. Rapidus sees an opportunity to capture smaller customers who are willing to pay a premium for speed and customization. Additionally, geopolitical factors are influencing the push for advanced technology, with Japan aiming to reduce reliance on Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing expertise and establish its own ecosystem for leading-edge production. 

This is why the semiconductor industry is advancing rapidly toward 3 nm and 2 nm process nodes, with leading players outlining production timelines and capacity expansions over the next five years. Below is a detailed overview of these developments, including plans from TSMC, Samsung, Intel, and Rapidus.

The forecast predicts a 540% growth in the global AI semiconductor market between 2020 and 2030, driven by increasing adoption across key segments such as servers, networking, edge devices, and PCs/smartphones. Servers are projected to dominate the market, reflecting the growing demand for AI in data centers and cloud computing, while networking and edge computing are expected to see rapid expansion, driven by real-time processing needs in IoT and automotive applications. Moderate growth is anticipated in the PCs/smartphone segment as AI integration in consumer electronics continues. Tokyo’s recent $65 billion investment in AI and semiconductor industries underscores the importance of this market, which is expected to exceed $400 billion by 2030, highlighting the transformative role of semiconductors in powering AI advancements across industries.

TSMC

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is enhancing its semiconductor fabrication capabilities globally, focusing on 3 nm and 2 nm and below nodes.

• 3 nm Production (Taiwan): TSMC began volume production of its 3 nm process technology in December 2022 at Fab 18, located in the Southern Taiwan Science Park (STSP). Fab 18 consists of eight phases, each featuring a cleanroom area of 58,000 square meters, roughly double the size of a standard logic fab. TSMC has invested over NT$1.86 trillion in Fab 18, creating more than 11,300 high-tech jobs.
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• 2 nm Development (Taiwan): TSMC’s 2 nm process is scheduled for risk production in late 2024 and mass production in 2025. A new facility in Hsinchu Science Park is under construction, with equipment installation set for April 2024.
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• 2 nm (Arizona, USA): TSMC is building a second fab in Arizona to produce 2 nm nodes, with production expected to begin in 2028. A third fab, focused on cutting-edge technologies, is planned for later this decade. This is part of a $40 billion investment, the largest foreign investment in Arizona's history.
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Samsung

Samsung Electronics is expanding its semiconductor manufacturing capabilities in South Korea and the United States, focusing on 3 nm and 2 nm nodes.

• 3 nm Production (South Korea): Samsung began mass production of its first-generation 3 nm chips in the second half of 2022, using its proprietary Multi-Bridge Channel Field-Effect Transistor (MBCFET) technology, a Gate-All-Around (GAA) architecture. Second-generation 3 nm production began in 2023, offering improved energy efficiency and performance.
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• 2 nm Development (South Korea): Samsung plans to start 2 nm production in 2025 for mobile devices, followed by high-performance computing in 2026 and automotive semiconductors by 2027. The 2 nm (SF2) process is expected to deliver a 12% performance increase, 25% power efficiency improvement, and 5% area reduction compared to 3 nm.
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• Taylor Fab (Texas, USA): Samsung is constructing a $17 billion fab in Taylor, Texas. Initially planned for 4 nm production in late 2024, the fab may start directly with 2 nm technology in 2026 to align with Samsung’s broader roadmap.
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Intel

Intel Corporation is investing in global semiconductor manufacturing, focusing on advanced nodes like Intel 3, Intel 20A, and Intel 18A.

• United States: Intel’s Fab 42 in Arizona produces 10 nm chips and is transitioning to Intel 7 and Intel 4 nodes. In Ohio, Intel is building two fabs with a $20 billion investment to produce Intel 18A by the decade's end.
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• Europe: Intel’s Fab 34 in Ireland will produce Intel 4 technology using EUV lithography. In Germany, Intel delayed its is investing €17 billion to construct two fabs in Magdeburg, focusing on advanced nodes.
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• Israel: Intel’s Fab 28 in Kiryat Gat, Israel, is transitioning from 10 nm to Intel 7 and Intel 4 processes. Intel has committed $10 billion to expand this facility.
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Rapidus

Rapidus, a Japanese semiconductor start-up, aims to produce 2 nm chips, positioning itself as a significant player in the advanced semiconductor market.

• 2 nm Development: Rapidus plans to start trial production of 2 nm chips in April 2025, with mass production by 2027. The company is collaborating with IBM to integrate cutting-edge technology, including Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography.
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• Manufacturing Facilities: Rapidus is building its IIM-1 fab in Chitose City, Hokkaido, Japan. The first EUV machine from ASML is expected to arrive in mid-December 2024.
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• Strategic Approach: Rapidus is rethinking traditional manufacturing models by emphasizing smaller batch production with faster cycle times, aiming for greater efficiency and adaptability.
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SMIC

China’s stake in leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing and AI is hindered by significant technological and geopolitical challenges. While domestic efforts, such as those by SMIC, have made strides in producing 7 nm chips, China remains far behind global leaders like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, who are advancing toward 2 nm production. Critical dependencies on foreign equipment, such as ASML's EUV lithography machines, and U.S.-led export restrictions on advanced semiconductor tools and high-performance GPUs have further constrained its progress. Although China has invested heavily in AI development, its capabilities remain primarily focused on practical applications like surveillance and automation rather than leading innovation in foundational AI technologies. To conclude, China has an uphill battle to compete in the global semiconductor and AI industries.

Is the free world Decoupling from China and future risk of relying on Taiwan Fabs?

The global semiconductor industry is undergoing significant restructuring as it increasingly decouples from China and prepares for potential decoupling from Taiwan’s fabs. Geopolitical tensions, driven by concerns over China's ambitions toward Taiwan and its own restricted access to advanced chip-making technologies, have accelerated efforts by the US, Europe, and their allies to diversify supply chains and reduce dependency on both regions. Export controls targeting China, including restrictions on advanced chips and manufacturing tools, have prompted heavy investments in domestic semiconductor manufacturing in the US, Japan, South Korea, and Europe. Simultaneously, Taiwan’s pivotal role in leading-edge semiconductor production, dominated by TSMC, has highlighted vulnerabilities, spurring new fabs outside the island, such as TSMC’s facilities in Arizona and Samsung’s in Texas. These shifts reflect a broader trend toward creating more resilient, geographically dispersed semiconductor ecosystems that mitigate risks associated with reliance on any single region for critical technologies.

Current global plans for semiconductor manufacturing expansion aim to reduce dependency on Taiwan but fall short of ensuring sufficient non-Taiwan capacity for 2 nm and below nodes in the near term. Taiwan, led by TSMC, still dominates leading-edge semiconductor production, supplying over 90% of the world’s advanced chips. While significant investments are underway—such as TSMC's Arizona fabs, Samsung’s expansions in South Korea and Texas, and Intel's facilities in the US, Europe, and Israel—these efforts are unlikely to match Taiwan’s scale and technological leadership at 2 nm and below by 2027-2030.

For example, TSMC’s planned Arizona fab is projected to produce 2 nm chips by 2028, but its capacity will be a fraction of TSMC's output in Taiwan. Similarly, Samsung and Intel are progressing toward advanced nodes, but both face challenges in matching TSMC’s efficiency and yield at these cutting-edge technologies. Additionally, the complexity of EUV lithography and the industry's high R&D costs further limit the pace at which non-Taiwan fabs can scale to competitive capacities.

China’s Semiconductor Growth Slows Amid Sanctions, Legacy Chips Drive Output While Advanced Tech Struggle - what about ALD?

China's semiconductor industry is at a crossroads, navigating both growth opportunities and significant challenges. As US sanctions restrict access to critical technologies like EUV lithography, China's ambitions in advanced chip manufacturing are stifled, particularly in areas like AI and next-generation devices. While the country remains a strong player in legacy chip production, driven by robust demand from multinational corporations and its booming EV sector, the lack of advanced capabilities limits its ability to compete globally in cutting-edge technologies. At the same time, Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD), a cornerstone for technologies like GAAFET, DRAM, and 3D NAND, is seeing robust growth globally, with leading OEMs like ASMI, TEL, Applied Materials, and Lam Research emphasizing its pivotal role in scaling advanced architectures. However, China’s ALD market is expected to pivot towards supporting legacy nodes, as geopolitical constraints and domestic manufacturing dynamics shape its future. This evolving landscape underscores a shift in focus, with global players capitalizing on innovation while China's market transitions towards domestic and legacy-driven demand.

China’s semiconductor industry experienced slowing growth in October, reflecting the impact of looming US sanctions on advanced chip manufacturing. While legacy chip production and the EV sector drove industrial growth, advanced semiconductor capabilities remain constrained by restrictions on critical lithography equipment, such as ASML's EUV tools. This has stifled China’s ambitions in leading-edge technologies used in smartphones and AI. Despite producing 353 billion IC units from January to October, a 24.8% year-on-year increase, most of this growth was in legacy chips, heavily demanded by multinational corporations and export markets. Advanced production, meanwhile, lags behind as companies like TSMC and Samsung tighten services to Chinese firms, reflecting a broader global effort to limit China's technological advancement. These restrictions have heightened China's dependence on imported chips, which reached $315 billion in the first 10 months of 2024.

This chart shows the production output of integrated circuits (in hundred million units). China's IC production reflects the semiconductor cycle. The Chinese government sees semiconductors as an important focus for domestic production based on its Made in China 2025 plan. Note: Data for February are the cumulative total of January and February combined.

In Applied Materials' Q4 2024 earnings call, CEO Gary Dickerson highlighted the company's advancements in ALD technology. He emphasized that ALD is crucial for enabling next-generation semiconductor architectures, particularly in the development of gate-all-around transistors and advanced packaging solutions. Dickerson noted that Applied Materials' leadership in ALD positions the company to meet the increasing demand for energy-efficient computing and artificial intelligence applications. Applied Materials reported strong Q4 2024 earnings, highlighting the significant role of China despite challenges from US restrictions. China contributed approximately 30% of revenue, normalized after elevated demand for DRAM and NAND earlier in the year. The company's revenue from ICAPS (IoT, communications, automotive, power, and sensors) nodes remains strong in China, though potential slowing in automotive and industrial sectors may impact future growth. Applied is focusing on advanced materials engineering for cutting-edge technologies like gate-all-around transistors and high-bandwidth memory, areas critical for AI and energy-efficient computing. While China remains a key market for legacy technologies, restrictions on leading-edge technology sales are reshaping Applied’s growth trajectory, emphasizing global collaboration and innovation outside China. Looking ahead, Applied anticipates steady ICAPS demand and continued contributions from China at current levels.

Is the China market gloomy in ALD Equipment demand - hwat does the Tier 1 OMEs report on future ALD demand?

ALD is increasingly vital in semiconductor manufacturing, particularly for Gate-All-Around Field-Effect Transistors (GAAFET), DRAM, and 3D NAND technologies. Leading equipment manufacturers—ASM International (ASMI), Tokyo Electron (TEL), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Lam Research (LAM)—have highlighted ALD's significance in these areas.

ASM International:

ASMI has reported strong demand for its ALD equipment, driven by applications in advanced semiconductor nodes. The company noted that artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing are propelling the need for GAAFET structures, where ALD processes are essential for precise material deposition. ASMI's recent financial results reflect this trend, with increased bookings attributed to robust demand in these sectors. 

Tokyo Electron:

TEL has been focusing on developing ALD technologies to enhance its position in the 3D NAND market. The company announced advancements aimed at improving 3D NAND flash memory production, positioning itself as a competitor to Lam Research in this domain. TEL's efforts underscore the growing importance of ALD in fabricating complex 3D structures required for high-density memory applications. 

Applied Materials:

AMAT has emphasized its leadership in materials engineering, including ALD, to support next-generation semiconductor architectures like GAAFETs. The company highlighted that ALD is crucial for developing advanced transistors and packaging solutions, which are essential for energy-efficient computing and AI applications. AMAT's focus on ALD aligns with the industry's shift towards more complex device structures. 

Lam Research:

LAM has been at the forefront of ALD technology, particularly for memory applications. The company introduced the ALTUS® Max E Series, featuring an all-ALD low-fluorine tungsten fill process, addressing challenges in scaling 3D NAND and DRAM devices. This innovation enables the production of higher aspect ratio structures with improved performance, demonstrating ALD's critical role in advancing memory technologies. 

In summary, leading OEMs recognize ALD as a pivotal technology for advancing semiconductor manufacturing, especially in GAAFET, DRAM, and 3D NAND applications. The continuous development and adoption of ALD processes are essential to meet the industry's evolving demands for higher performance and greater efficiency. 

China's demand for ALD equipment reflects a mixed outlook, influenced by geopolitical restrictions and market dynamics. Advanced semiconductor manufacturing in China faces constraints due to limited access to critical tools like EUV lithography, stifling progress in leading-edge applications like AI and smartphones. However, the market for legacy chip production remains robust, with strong output driven by demand from multinational corporations and export markets. Leading OEMs like Applied Materials and Lam Research report sustained engagement in the Chinese market, particularly in legacy nodes and AI-driven technologies, though future growth may slow due to challenges in automotive and industrial sectors. Despite these hurdles, Tier 1 OEMs, including ASML, have seen better-than-expected sales in China, highlighting its continued relevance in the global semiconductor landscape. Given that ALD is expected to have double digit growth for GAAFET, DRAM and NAND in leading edge nodes and memory going 3D the China market may be less important looking ahead and will transform to a legacy market for domestic and possibly Korean ALD OEMs.

Sources:

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha

https://www.techedt.com/chinas-chip-production-slows-in-october-as-us-sanctions-loom

https://en.macromicro.me/collections/4345/mm-semiconductor/316/cn-china-output-of-integrated-circuit

Intel Sets Record with 2D TMD Transistors for Next-Gen Electronics

Intel researchers have achieved record-breaking performance in transistors using ultra-thin 2D transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs) like MoS₂ and WSe₂ as channels. These monolayer materials are ideal for scaled devices but present challenges in integration due to their lack of atomic “dangling bonds.” By developing a specialized gate oxide atomic layer deposition (ALD) process and low-temperature gate cleaning, Intel built GAA NMOS and PMOS transistors with record subthreshold slopes and high drain currents. Specifically, they achieved a subthreshold slope of <75 mV/dec and Idmax >900 µA/µm in MoS₂ NMOS transistors, and a slope of 156 mV/dec with Idmax = 132 µA/µm in WSe₂ PMOS devices. These advancements highlight the promise of 2D TMDs for next-gen electronics and the need for further research to overcome integration challenges.

The images above are TEM characterizations of the record GAA NMOS device across the gate, showing a healthy, conformal GAA architecture with 43nm-wide monolayer MoS2 channel and conformal HfO2 with a thickness of ~4.0nm.

Record Performance with 2D Channels: Ultra-thin transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs), such as MoS2 and WSe2, are called monolayer, or 2D, materials because they’re one just atomic layer thick. They are being extensively studied for use as the channel in extremely scaled devices because of their excellent electrical performance. However, interfacing them with other materials in a device structure is difficult because at the atomic level there are no available “dangling bonds” to use. Thus, 2D channels have been a challenge to optimize.

Intel researchers will describe how they used 1) a unique gate oxide atomic layer deposition (ALD) process and 2) a low-temperature gate cleaning process to build GAA devices that demonstrated breakthrough performance for MoS2- and WSe2-based GAA NMOS and PMOS transistors, respectively. This includes record subthreshold slope (<75mv/dec) and drain current (Idmax>900 µA/µm at <50nm gate length) in sub-1nm-thick monolayer MoS2 GAA NMOS transistors. Also, using ruthenium (Ru) source and drain (S/D) contacts, they achieved record subthreshold slope (156mV/dec) and drain current (Idmax = 132µA/µm) in a ~30nm gate-length WSe2 PMOS device. The researchers say these results both underscore the potential of 2D TMDs for use in next-generation electronics, and highlight the critical need for continued research to address the remaining scientific and technological challenges.

Sources:

https://www.ieee-iedm.org/press-kit

(Paper #24.3, “Gate Oxide Module Development for Scaled GAA 2D FETs Enabling SS<75mV/d and Record Idmax>900µA/µm at Lg<50nm,” W. Mortelmans et al, Intel)

Intel's Breakthrough in RibbonFET Transistor Scaling Demonstrates Silicon Viability for Future Nodes

For the latest insights from the 2024 IEEE International Electron Devices Meeting (IEDM), including groundbreaking advancements in 2nm CMOS logic, extremely scaled transistors, monolithic CFET inverters, energy-efficient 3D computing-in-memory, and novel device technologies, you can explore the full press kit here.

Extremely Scaled Transistors from Intel: Intel researchers will show that silicon can continue to support the extreme gate length scaling which future technology nodes require. They will describe how they built RibbonFET CMOS transistors (Intel’s version of nanosheets) with 6nm gate lengths at 45nm contacted poly pitch (CPP, the spacing between adjacent transistor gates), with no degradation of electron mobility (how fast electrons can move through a material). The researchers will show that electron mobility doesn’t degrade until 3nm Tsi (silicon thickness), below which electron scattering due to surface roughness becomes an issue. They will describe how they achieved good short channel control (≤100mV/V at <4nm Tsi), with extremely low threshold voltage at these gate lengths through clever workfunction engineering. The work shows that 3nm is a practical scaling limit for RibbonFETs.

The image illustrates the behavior of drain-induced barrier lowering (DIBL) vs. silicon thickness (Tsi) at LG=18nm. It shows a reduction as Tsi is scaled from 10nm to 1.5nm; however, DIBL reduction saturates at Tsi <4nm, below which very little gain is obtained. PMOS DIBL is elevated vs. NMOS DIBL at the same Tsi. Also shown are TEM micrographs of a 1NR transistor with various Tsi values down to 1.5nm.

The series of images are (a) TEM micrograph and EDX scan of a completed 6nm RibbonFET device on a 1NR vehicle, showing a disconnected subfin; (b - d) are high-resolution cross-section TEMs for Tsi=5.5nm, 3.1nm and 1.7nm respectively, at 6nm gate length on a 1NR vehicle

Sources:

IEDM 2024 Press Kit Paper #2.2, “Silicon RibbonFET CMOS at 6nm Gate Length,” A. Agrawal et al, Intel https://www.ieee-iedm.org/press-kit

TSMC 2nm Platform Technology Featuring Energy-Efficient Nanosheet Transistors and Interconnects

TSMC’s New, Industry-Leading 2nm CMOS Logic Platform: In a late-news paper, TSMC researchers will unveil the world’s most advanced logic technology. It is the company’s forthcoming 2nm CMOS (i.e., N2), platform, designed for energy-efficient computing in AI, mobile, and HPC applications. It offers a 15% speed gain (or 30% power reduction) at >1.15x chip density versus the most advanced logic technology currently in production, TSMC’s own 3nm CMOS (N3) platform, introduced in late 2022.

The new N2 platform features GAA nanosheet transistors; middle-/back-end-of-line interconnects with the densest SRAM macro ever reported (~38Mb/mm²); and a holistic, system-technology co-optimized (STCO) architecture offering great design flexibility. That architecture includes a scalable copper-based redistribution layer and a flat passivation layer (for better performance, robust CPI, and seamless 3D integration); and through-silicon vias, or TSVs (for power/signal with F2F/F2B stacking). The researchers say the N2 platform is currently in risk production and scheduled for mass production in 2H’ 25. N2P (5% speed enhanced version of N2) targets to complete qualification in 2025 and mass production in 2026.

The cross-sectional image shows that the N2 platform’s Cu redistribution layer (RDL) and passivation provide seamless integration with 3D technologies.

Graph showing that the new N2 high-density cells gain 14~15% speed@power vs. N3E FinFlex 2-1 fin cells across the Vdd range; a 35% power savings at higher voltage; and a 24% power savings at lower voltage

The graph above compares two CMOS technology nodes, TSMC's N3E and N2, specifically for Arm's A715 core. N3E FinFlex (2-1 Fin) architecture, represented by the blue dotted line, operates at higher power but achieves higher speed than previous nodes. Operating at voltages between 0.5V and 0.9V, the N3E design can achieve significant performance levels but comes with a power increase. Now, N2 NanoFlex HD (High-Density) Energy-Efficient Cells as in the The N2 node, marked by the green dotted line, introduces "NanoFlex" cells that are optimized for energy efficiency. Compared to N3E, it achieves similar speeds but with substantially lower power consumption, marking a shift toward lower power designs in advanced nodes.

Key Improvements:

• When shifting from 0.6V to 0.55V in the N3E architecture, there's a 15% reduction in speed but a 24% reduction in power.
• For N2, at 0.85V, there's a 14% reduction in speed and a 35% reduction in power compared to similar performance points in N3E.
• These efficiency improvements are essential for high-performance applications in power-sensitive environments.

In summary, TSMC's N3E focuses on performance with FinFlex technology, while N2's NanoFlex HD cells target power efficiency, marking a clear trend in CMOS architecture evolution for balancing power and speed.

For the latest insights from the 2024 IEEE International Electron Devices Meeting (IEDM), including groundbreaking advancements in 2nm CMOS logic, extremely scaled transistors, monolithic CFET inverters, energy-efficient 3D computing-in-memory, and novel device technologies, you can explore the full press kit here.

Sources: 

IEDM Press kit Paper #2.1, “2nm Platform Technology Featuring Energy-Efficient Nanosheet Transistors and Interconnects Co-Optimized with 3DIC for AI, HPC and Mobile SoC Applications,” G. Yeap et al, TSMC https://www.ieee-iedm.org/press-kit

Jusung Engineering Posts Stellar Q2 Recovery with 207% Sales Surge, Driven by Semiconductor Market Rebound

Jusung Engineering reported a robust financial recovery in the second quarter of 2024, with sales soaring by 207% to 97.3 billion won ($72.0 million) compared to the same period last year, and an operating profit margin of 37%. This turnaround follows a challenging first quarter and is driven by increased orders and deliveries of semiconductor equipment, including a significant contract with SK Hynix for DRAM manufacturing in China. The company's expertise in Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD) technology and its expansion into OLED and solar power sectors position it well for continued growth as the semiconductor market rebounds.

Sources:

Jusung Engineering Reports Robust Q2 Results with 207% Sales Growth - Businesskorea

Boosting the Future: Increased ALD Use Paves the Way for Advanced GAAFET Technology

The Biden administration is considering a complete ban on the export of chips utilizing Gate All-Around Field Effect Transistor (GAAFET) technology to China, Bloomberg reports (LINK). The rationale behind this potential ban is the concern that such advanced transistors could be leveraged for military applications and artificial intelligence (AI) advancements by China. This move follows previous restrictions from 2022, when the U.S. barred its Electronic Design and Automation (EDA) companies from selling tools necessary for GAAFET development to China. In addition, advanced chip exports from companies like Nvidia were restricted, with these measures being progressively tightened and expanded over time.

Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD) is celebrating its 50th anniversary in 2024. The anniversary marks 50 years since Dr. Tuomo Suntola and his colleagues filed the first patent for Atomic Layer Epitaxy in 1974, which laid the foundation for ALD technology. This milestone will be celebrated at various events, including the ALD 2024 conference, where Dr. Suntola is expected to deliver the opening remarks .

ASM International, a leader in Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD), plays a crucial role in enabling Gate-All-Around Field Effect Transistors (GAAFETs) and continued semiconductor scaling. ALD's precision in depositing ultra-thin, uniform films is essential for creating the high-performance, low-power structures required by GAAFETs. This technology, along with other advanced processes such as epitaxy and selective etching, supports the intricate fabrication steps needed for these next-generation transistors.

The production of GAAFETs requires a significant increase in the use of ALD technology - maybe up to 40% more according to ASM. ALD is essential for creating the ultra-thin, uniform films needed for GAAFET structures, ensuring high-quality, defect-free layers that are critical for advanced transistor performance. This technology enables precise control over the deposition process, crucial for developing high-k dielectrics and other materials that enhance GAAFET performance and efficiency. As the semiconductor industry now transitions from FinFET to GAAFET technology, leveraging ALD's capabilities is vital for maintaining and advancing Moore's Law, enabling more powerful and energy-efficient chips using existing manufacturing infrastructure

Applied Materials has outlined next-generation tools essential for producing 3nm and GAA transistors, such as those in Samsung's upcoming 3GAE and 3GAP technologies. These advanced tools address the complexities of GAA transistor manufacturing, including precise lithography, epitaxy, and selective materials removal. Applied's Producer Selectra Selective Etch IMS tool is pivotal in defining channel width without damaging surrounding materials, while the Centura Prime Epi tool ensures clean deposition of Si and SiGe nanosheets. Additionally, their Integrated Materials Solution (IMS) systems integrate atomic layer deposition (ALD), thermal steps, and plasma treatments to optimize the gate oxide stack, enhancing performance and reducing gate leakage. These innovations are crucial as they enable higher performance, lower power consumption, and greater transistor density, aligning with the industry's move from FinFET to GAA technology.

Today GAA transistors are currently in mass production only by Samsung, which offered the technology to customers with its 3-nanometer process in 2022. Intel is set to follow, producing GAAFET on its 2-nanometer process expected to be available in its products later this year. TSMC, the market leader, plans to introduce GAAFET with its own 2 nm process in 2025. The GAAFET technology itself is not inherently suited for AI or military applications but represents an evolution in transistor design, enabling denser packing of transistors as lithography equipment and manufacturing processes advance. This technology shift, akin to transitioning to a new node, typically results in either reduced power consumption or improved performance by 15-25%.

The improvements facilitated by GAAFET could significantly enhance the capabilities available to China. SMIC, China's largest contract manufacturer, currently produces chips on a 7 nm process and is believed to be capable of reaching at least 5 nanometers with existing tools. The combination of this process with GAAFET could theoretically prevent China from falling too far behind Western advancements. However, China has been effectively shut out from developing GAAFET using tools from leading EDA companies, all of which are American. Additionally, the Dutch company ASML, dominant in the lithography equipment market, has not sold its EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) machines to China and faced further restrictions in 2023 on selling its advanced DUV (Deep Ultraviolet) equipment. In April 2024, ASML took another step in the tech war against China by announcing that it would no longer service existing equipment in China, potentially crippling the country's semiconductor manufacturing capabilities. The specific details of the new export bans are still unclear, but Reuters notes that initial proposals have faced criticism from the U.S. semiconductor industry for being overly broad and extensive.

Source: USA överväger ytterligare GAAFET-sanktioner mot Kina – Semi14, www.ASM.com, Applied Materials Outlines Next-Gen Tools for 3nm and GAA Transistor Era (anandtech.com), Atomic layer deposition, next-gen transistors, and ASM (techfund.one)

ASML Unveils Hyper-NA EUV: Pioneering New Frontiers in Chip Innovation and Efficiency

ASML, the leader in lithography technology for semiconductor manufacturing, has launched its latest breakthrough: the Hyper-NA EUV tool and Intel being the first customer getting its first machine earlier this year. This leading-edge technology, which boosts the numerical aperture (NA) from 0.55 to 0.75, is poised to revolutionize chip design by enabling unprecedented levels of transistor density. Scheduled for introduction around 2030, Hyper-NA promises to extend the capabilities of chipmakers far beyond current limits, opening up new possibilities for intricate and powerful chip designs.

The presentation announcing ASML's Hyper-NA EUV technology was delivered by the company's former president, Martin van den Brink, at imec's ITF World event in Antwerp. 

Reduction in Double Patterning Complexity: Hyper-NA EUV technology simplifies the lithography process by reducing the need for double patterning, i.e., like Litho-Etch-Litho-Etch (LELE) etc., a method that involves aligning two masks perfectly to create intricate chip designs. By providing higher resolution and precision, Hyper-NA EUV minimizes the challenges and costs associated with double patterning, streamlining production and enhancing overall efficiency for chipmakers. However, there are a myriad of multi-patterning technologies deployed out there and SMIC, the main Chinese foundry, is reportedly using sextuple-patterning for its 5 nm technology.

Hyper-NA EUV technology is designed to significantly increase the productivity of semiconductor manufacturing, enabling the processing of 400 to 500 wafers per hour. This improvement will help chipmakers meet the growing demand for high-performance chips more efficiently, reducing production time and costs while maintaining high precision and quality.

The adoption of Hyper-NA EUV presents a myriad of opportunities for the semiconductor industry. As Intel has already installed the first High-NA systems, showcasing the potential of these advanced tools to enhance processor performance. As other industry leaders like TSMC, Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix explore the adoption of High-NA and eventually Hyper-NA, the competitive landscape is set for a dynamic transformation. Innovations such as advanced polarizers to overcome light polarization issues and improvements in resist materials and etch selectivity will enable more precise and efficient chip manufacturing.

ASML’s Hyper-NA EUV technology is not just a short-term solution but part of a long-term roadmap that will sustain chip innovation for the next decade and beyond. Collaborative research and development efforts, including Imec’s simulations and Zeiss’s lens designs, highlight the cooperative spirit driving this technological advancement. As chip designers like Nvidia, Apple, and AMD leverage these tools at leading foundries such as TSMC, the future of chip design looks brighter than ever, promising enhanced productivity, technological leadership, and sustained growth. Hyper-NA EUV is set to redefine what is possible in the world of semiconductors, driving the industry towards new heights of efficiency and performance.

Sources: ASML Aims for Hyper-NA EUV, Shrinking Chip Limits - EE Times

Air Liquide signed major contract to support the semiconductor industry in the U.S. with an investment of more than 250 million dollars

Air Liquide has announced a significant investment exceeding $250 million to construct a new industrial gas production facility in Idaho, USA. This plant will supply ultra-pure nitrogen and other essential gases to Micron Technology, Inc., a leading semiconductor manufacturer, as well as other local customers. The facility, part of a long-term contract, will play a crucial role in the production of memory chips and is expected to be operational by the end of 2025. This project will generate hundreds of jobs during both the construction and operational phases and is designed to be highly efficient, incorporating digital technologies and modularization to ensure reliability and quick delivery.

Matthieu Giard, Chief Executive Officer of Americas for the Air Liquide Group, said

We are pleased to further strengthen our 30 year-long partnership with Micron Technology. Our partner’s trust in Air Liquide reinforces our position in the Electronics industry as a technology leader with strong innovation capabilities. This investment will support the production of leading-edge memory chips, notably to meet the growing demand for computing capacities required by Artificial Intelligence. This contract illustrates our strategy to further accompany our customers in their development, including in the U.S. The Electronics activity is a strong driver of our 2025 strategic plan ADVANCE, which closely links financial and extra-financial performances.

This initiative exemplifies Air Liquide's commitment to technological advancement and environmental sustainability in the semiconductor sector. The new production unit will be 5% more power-efficient than previous generations and aims to use 100% renewable energy within five years. Matthieu Giard, CEO of Americas for Air Liquide, highlighted the long-standing partnership with Micron Technology and the strategic importance of this investment in supporting the demand for advanced memory chips, driven by the rise of artificial intelligence. Scott Gatzemeier of Micron Technology emphasized the project’s role in enhancing the U.S. semiconductor supply chain, driving significant growth in domestic material sourcing, and bolstering the semiconductor ecosystem across the country.

Source: Air Liquide signed major contract to support the semiconductor industry in the U.S. with an investment of more than 250 million dollars | Air Liquide

Jusung Engineering to Spin Off Semiconductor Business, Aiming for Market Revaluation and Strategic Growth

Jusung Engineering, a a first in Korea’s chipmaking equipment industry, has announced a significant restructuring aimed at enhancing its market valuation and navigating geopolitical risks. The company will spin off its highly successful semiconductor division into a new entity, marking a strategic move to unlock greater value for its shareholders and position itself for future growth.

Chairman Hwang Chul-ju highlighted the undervaluation of Jusung despite its proprietary technologies and leading market position. By creating a new entity for its semiconductor business, Jusung aims to elevate its market cap, which currently lags behind international competitors. The new semiconductor entity, tentatively named Jusung Engineering, will operate independently, allowing it to focus solely on expanding its technological capabilities and market presence.

The spin-off comes as Jusung's semiconductor division continues to excel with its advanced film deposition technologies, including selective semi-spheric silicon deposition and atomic layer deposition (ALD). These technologies are pivotal in the production of DRAM memory, NAND flash, and logic chips. As the demand for more integrated and smaller semiconductor devices grows, Jusung's ALD equipment is set to become increasingly crucial. Additionally, Jusung’s poly etchers, applicable across various semiconductor products, will play a significant role in diversifying the company’s offerings.

Despite achieving annual sales of 200 billion won ($146 million) and holding a market cap of 1.6 trillion won, Jusung's valuation remains significantly lower than its global peers. For instance, Dutch competitor ASM boasts a market cap of 47.3 trillion won. The spin-off is expected to narrow this gap, potentially achieving comparable sales records within five years. 

The decision also aims to mitigate risks from the ongoing US-China rivalry. By separating the semiconductor business, Jusung can better shield its other divisions, including display and solar panel equipment, from potential geopolitical fallout. This strategic insulation ensures that the company’s diverse operations remain resilient in the face of international tensions.

There is speculation about Hwang Eun-seok, the chairman’s son, taking the helm of the new semiconductor entity. With a doctorate in material science and experience at Samsung Semiconductors, Eun-seok is well-prepared for leadership, though Chairman Hwang emphasizes that any succession will be merit-based.

Jusung Engineering's spin-off of its semiconductor business represents a bold move to enhance its market valuation and strategically position itself for sustained growth. By creating a focused, independent entity, Jusung aims to capitalize on its technological strengths and navigate the complexities of the global semiconductor market more effectively. This restructuring is set to unlock new opportunities and reinforce Jusung's standing as a key player in the tech industry.

Sources: Jusung, Undervalued no more: Jusung Engineering to spin off chip business (naver.com)

DOE Invests $4M in Argonne's ALD Tech to Develop Energy-Efficient Semiconductor Devices

The US Department of Energy (DOE) has awarded Argonne National Laboratory a $4 million grant to pioneer research in microchip energy efficiency using Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD). This innovative project, part of the DOE's Energy Efficient Scaling for Two Decades (EES2) initiative, aims to harness the potential of 2D materials, specifically molybdenum disulfide (MoS2), to create microchips that could consume up to 50 times less energy than current models. 

Led by Argonne's Distinguished Fellow Jeffrey Elam, the research team will collaborate with Stanford, Northwestern, and Boise State Universities to develop ALD techniques for fabricating atomically precise MoS2 films. This breakthrough could lead to microchips with integrated memory and logic functions, significantly reducing energy waste and addressing the critical "von Neumann bottleneck" in computing. The project is a step forward in the global effort to enhance computational efficiency and sustainability.

Source: Argonne National Lab gets $4M to develop MoS2 chips - News (compoundsemiconductor.net)

After decline of -13%, TECHCET reports consecutive YoY double-digit growth

San Diego, CA, February 16, 2024: TECHCET — the advisory firm providing materials market & supply chain information for the semiconductor industry — is anticipating a strong rebound in the semiconductor memory market segment for 2024, which will lead the total semiconductor industry into an upturn. This comes after a decline in total semiconductor revenues to US$572 billion in 2023, a -13% change compared to 2022. Significant revenue growth is expected in 2024 of 12%, followed by even stronger growth in 2025 of 21%. Moderated growth is anticipated in 2026 as the market enters a downcycle later that year.

By 2029, the market is set to eclipse the US$900 billion point, but the elusive US$1 trillion echelon is not predicted by TECHCET to be reached until 2031 or 2032.

While the cyclicity of the semiconductor market is evident in this forecast, overall revenue trends for materials markets are more moderate and often do not exhibit the same swings in ASP’s or revenues as semiconductor device revenues. TECHCET will provide an overview of the current materials market outlooks with respective insights at their upcoming Advisory Alert Webinar, on April 21st, available to member subscribers and special guests.

To get more market and supply chain information on TECHCET’s forecasts and Critical Materials Reports™, go to:

https://techcet.com/ or email us here

Don’t miss the 2024 CMC Conference in Chandler, AZ on April 10-11. For more info and to register, visit https://cmcfabs.org/2024-cmc-conference/

ABOUT TECHCET: TECHCET CA LLC is an advisory services firm expert in market and supply-chain analysis of electronic materials for the semiconductor, display, solar/PV, and LED industries. TECHCET offers consulting, subscription service, and reports, including the Critical Materials Council (CMC) of semiconductor fabricators and Data Subscription Service (DSS). For additional information, please email us here, call +1-480-332-8336, or go to www.techcet.com.

South Korea's Semiconductor Surge Signals Global Tech Revival

South Korea's semiconductor industry is experiencing a remarkable resurgence, marking a turning point in the global tech sector. In November, chip production leaped by 42%, the highest since 2017, while shipments skyrocketed by 80%, the largest increase since 2002. This upturn is a beacon of hope for giants like Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. The revival extends beyond national borders, suggesting a broader recovery in global tech demand. Amidst challenges, this surge propels South Korea's industrial output and signals a brighter economic forecast for 2023, with emerging technologies fueling further growth.

Source: South Korea Chip Output Jumps in Sign of Returning Global Demand - Bloomberg

Global Semiconductor Sales See Mixed Trends: Monthly Rise Amid Annual Decline

Global semiconductor sales rose 1.9% in September 2023 from August, but fell 4.5% from September 2022. Q3 sales reached $134.7 billion, up 6.3% from Q2 but down 4.5% from Q3 the previous year. Sales reflect positive momentum with a strong long-term demand outlook. Increases were seen in all regions except Japan.

WASHINGTON—Nov. 1, 2023—The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) today announced global semiconductor sales for the month of September 2023 increased 1.9% compared to August 2023 and fell 4.5% compared to September 2022. Worldwide sales of semiconductors totaled $134.7 billion during the third quarter of 2023, an increase of 6.3% compared to the second quarter of 2023 and down 4.5% compared to the third quarter of 2022. Monthly sales are compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization and represent a three-month moving average. SIA represents 99% of the U.S. semiconductor industry by revenue and nearly two-thirds of non-U.S. chip firms.

“Global semiconductor sales increased on a month-to-month basis for the seventh consecutive time in September, reinforcing the positive momentum the chip market has experienced during the middle part of this year,” said John Neuffer, SIA president and CEO. “The long-term outlook for semiconductor demand remains strong, with chips enabling countless products the world depends on and giving rise to new, transformative technologies of the future.”

Regionally, month-to-month sales increased in Asia Pacific/All Other (3.4%), Europe (3.0%), the Americas (2.4%), and China (0.5%), but decreased slightly in Japan (-0.2%). Year-to-year sales increased in Europe (6.7%), but decreased in the Americas (-2.0%), Japan (-3.6%), Asia Pacific/All Other (-5.6%) and China (-9.4%).

For comprehensive monthly semiconductor sales data and detailed WSTS forecasts, consider purchasing the WSTS Subscription Package. For detailed historical information about the global semiconductor industry and market, consider ordering the SIA Databook.

Atlas Copco to Bolster Semiconductor Portfolio with Acquisition of South Korean Vacuum Valve Company, Presys Co., Ltd.

• Atlas Copco set to acquire South Korean vacuum valve producer, Presys Co., Ltd.
• Presys reported a revenue of MKRW 35,000 in 2022 and has a workforce of 134.
• The deal, pending regulatory approval, is anticipated to close in Q1 2024.

Swedish firm Atlas Copco has announced its intention to purchase Presys Co., Ltd, a South Korean manufacturer of vacuum valves primarily for the semiconductor sector. Located in Suwon, Presys reported 2022 revenues of MKRW 35,000 (equivalent to SEK 275 million). Geert Follens, the Business Area President of Vacuum Technique at Atlas Copco, highlighted that Presys' offerings will enhance their existing semiconductor product range. Although the transaction amount remains undisclosed, it awaits regulatory nods and is slated for completion by early 2024. Upon finalization, Presys will be integrated into Atlas Copco's Semiconductor Chamber Solutions Division within the Vacuum Technique Business Area.

Presys customers, with focus on Asia.

Sources: 

프리시스(주) (gabia.io)

Atlas Copco to acquire Presys (evertiq.com)

TSMC To Report Breakthrough in NMOS Nanosheets Using Ultra-Thin MoS2 Channels at IEDM 2023

A TSMC-led research team, in collaboration with National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University and National Applied Research Laboratories, has unveiled promising results for using ultra-thin transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs), specifically MoS2, as the channel material in NMOS nanosheets. Their innovative approach deviates from the conventional method of thinning Si channels. The team's devices exhibited impressive performance metrics: a positive threshold voltage (VTH) of ~1.0 V, a high on-current of ~370 µA/µm at VDS = 1 V, a large on/off ratio of 1E8, and a low contact resistance ranging between 0.37-0.58 kΩ-µm. These outcomes were primarily attributed to the introduction of a novel C-shaped wrap-around contact, which enhances contact area, and an optimized gate stack. While the devices demonstrated satisfactory mechanical stability, a challenge remains in addressing defect creation within the MoS2 channels. This groundbreaking study, titled "Monolayer-MoS2 Stacked Nanosheet Channel with C-type Metal Contact" by Y-Y Chung et al., is a pivotal step forward in nanosheet scaling using TMDs.

ALD is a the technique for the precise and uniform synthesis of MoS₂, especially for semiconductor applications on large-scale wafers. The choice of precursors plays a crucial role in achieving optimal deposition characteristics. Mo (CO) 6 and H2S have been identified as the primary precursors for depositing molybdenum and sulfur components, respectively. These precursors have demonstrated the capacity for self-limiting growth behavior within a specific ALD temperature window, leading to uniform MoS₂ layers. Notably, this process has been successfully scaled up to achieve highly uniform film growth on large 300 mm SiO2/Si wafers, marking its potential for industry-level manufacturing. The ability to maintain uniformity and thickness control on such wafers emphasizes the potential of ALD in integrating MoS₂ into next-generation electronic devices and further underscores the significance of selecting appropriate precursors for optimal deposition outcomes. Other precursors have been investigated. MoCl₅ and MoF₆ serve as alternative molybdenum sources. For the sulfur component, H₂S is commonly paired with molybdenum precursors, but (CH₃)₂S has also been explored. The choice of these precursors directly impacts the properties of the resulting MoS₂ film in the ALD process and therefore precursor development for 2D MoS2 is a hot field of ongoing research.

While deposition methods are abundant, etching processes are comparatively scarce. Recent research by Elton Graugnard et al also introduces a thermal Atomic Layer Etching (ALE) technique for MoS2, leveraging MoF6 for fluorination, alternated with H2O exposures, to etch both crystalline and amorphous MoS2 films. This process has been characterized using various analytical techniques like QCM, FTIR, and QMS. The etching is temperature-dependent, with a significant increase in mass change per cycle as temperature rises. The mechanism involves two-stage oxidation of Mo, producing volatile byproducts. The resultant etch rates were established for different films, and post-etch annealing rendered crystalline MoS2 films. The thermal MoS2 ALE introduces a promising low-temperature method for embedding MoS2 films in large-scale device manufacturing.

Chem. Mater. 2023, 35, 3, 927-936

Sources:

 https://www.ieee-iedm.org/press-kit

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.chemmater.2c02549

Hamas' Brutal Attacks on Israel Could Disrupt Global Tech Supply Chain and Intel's Expansion Plans

The escalating Israel-Hamas war, after Hamas brutal attack on Israel and innocent civilians, is affecting the global tech sector. Many professionals, including top executives, are now serving as reservists in the Israel Defense Forces, as highlighted by EPSNews. Intel, a major private employer in Israel, along with other tech giants like Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft, faces potential disruptions, especially with facilities near conflict zones. The blockade in Gaza and transportation interruptions further strain the supply chain, emphasizing the tech industry's vulnerability to geopolitical challenges.

Intel factory in Kiryat Gat, employing about 5000 workers, which manufactures computer chips (wWikipedia), Location of Intel Fabs in Israel (Google)

Kiryat Gat, situated in Israel's Southern District, is known for Intel's semiconductor fabrication plants, including Fab 28 and the upcoming Fab 38. Founded in 1954, the city has grown significantly due to Jewish immigration over the decades and it remains an educational hub with 25 schools serving over 10,000 students.

The Israel-Hamas conflict has intensified concerns over the global semiconductor supply chain, as CNBC reports. With Israel being a key player in chip production, the geopolitical unrest poses risks to the semiconductor industry. The recent kidnapping of an Nvidia engineer further accentuates these threats, prompting tech firms to prioritize their employees' safety in the region.

Bloomberg reported this summer of Intel Corp.'s initiative to set up a new manufacturing facility in Israel. This move is part of Intel's strategy to diversify its production sources. While details remain undisclosed, the facility will focus on wafer fabrication. Intel's CEO, Pat Gelsinger, intends to expand manufacturing bases outside Asia. The plant, expected to operate from 2027, will be located in Kiryat Gat and is seen as a significant foreign investment in Israel. This development aligns with the global shift in chip manufacturing, as seen with Intel's investment in Poland and Micron Technology's potential investment in India.

Sources: 

War in Israel to Impact Electronics Supply Chain - EPS News

Intel to Build in Israel as Chipmakers Move Beyond East Asia - Bloomberg

Israel Is an Important Link in the Global Chip Supply Chain - Bloomberg

Kiryat Gat - Wikipedia

New US Roadmap Identifies Critical Semiconductor Research Priorities

Advancing semiconductor research is essential to continued innovation in the chip industry and throughout our economy. As ever-shrinking semiconductor components face fundamental physical limits, next-gen breakthroughs are unachievable without major advancements. To help address this challenge, Semiconductor Research Corporation (SRC) today unveiled the Microelectronics and Advanced Packaging (MAPT) Roadmap, which defines critical chip research priorities and technology challenges that must be addressed to support the “seismic shifts” outlined in the Decadal Plan for Semiconductors released by SRC and SIA in January 2021.

The Decadal Plan identified five seismic shifts in the industry related to smart sensing, memory and storage, communication, security, and energy efficient computing. The MAPT Roadmap continues the spirit of the Decadal Plan and discusses how to achieve its system-level goals, outlining the implementation plan for the semiconductor industry. The fundamental research that will transform these obstacles is focused on advanced packaging, 3D integration, electronic design automation, nanoscale manufacturing, new materials, and energy-efficient computing. The MAPT Roadmap is framed around fundamental and practical limits of information and communications technology sustainability: energy sustainability, environmental sustainability, and workforce sustainability.

Federal government and private sector investments in semiconductor R&D have propelled the rapid pace of innovation in the U.S. semiconductor industry, spurring tremendous growth throughout the U.S. and global economies. Using the MAPT Roadmap as a guide, we must sustain and expand public and private investments in chip research to help unlock the transformative technologies of the future.

Source: SIA, Erik Hadland, Director of Technology Policy New Roadmap Identifies Critical Semiconductor Research Priorities - Semiconductor Industry Association (semiconductors.org)

The Semiconductor Showdown: TSMC's GAA FETs vs. Intel's RibbonFET

The semiconductor industry is witnessing a fierce competition between TSMC and Intel, as they advance transistor designs with TSMC's Gate-All-Around (GAA) FETs and Intel's RibbonFET. Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD) plays an instrumental role in crafting these intricate designs. As the race to dominate the microelectronics realm heats up, the innovations from these giants foretell a transformative phase for technology between 2024 and 2026. This article dives into their respective technologies, comparing their strategies and highlighting the future implications for the semiconductor industry.

Both TSMC and Intel are pushing the boundaries of semiconductor innovation with advanced transistor designs. TSMC's GAA (Gate-All-Around) FET (Field-Effect Transistor) technology and Intel's RibbonFET are prime examples of this evolution. ALD is crucial for GAA FET production, ensuring precision and atomically thin, conformal or on purpose non-conformal or selectively deposited films. As transistors miniaturized, ALD replaced traditional silicon dioxide gate dielectrics with high-k materials, reducing gate leakage and offering enhanced uniformity. One of the challenges in GAA FETs is accurately aligning the gate material around the channel; ALD facilitates this through self-aligned processes. Additionally, in configurations with multiple gates or nanosheets, ALD accurately deposits spacer materials, preserving the necessary separation between nanosheets. ALD also offers precise doping for GAA FETs, including NMOS and PMOS. With atomic-level control, ALD introduces dopants like phosphorus for NMOS and boron for PMOS. Given the shrinking device dimensions, ALD's precision becomes vital, especially when considering techniques like solid-state doping to achieve ultra-shallow profiles.

TSMC's Gate-All-Around (GAA) FET technology represents a significant shift from the traditional FinFET transistor design. In a GAA FET, the gate material wraps entirely around the channel, unlike the FinFET where the gate is only on three sides of a vertical fin. This complete encirclement provides enhanced control over the current flow through the channel, reducing leakage current and allowing for lower voltage operation. The result is improved energy efficiency and performance.

TSMC's roadmap to N2. (Image: TSMC)

On the other hand, Intel's RibbonFET introduces a similar gate-all-around design but with a unique twist. Instead of a traditional vertical fin, RibbonFET uses nanosheet technology, where multiple flat nano-sheets are stacked to form the channel. This design offers even better control of the current flow, leading to significant gains in performance and efficiency. RibbonFET is one of Intel's flagship innovations for its advanced nodes, emphasizing the company's commitment to reclaiming technology leadership in the semiconductor space.

Intel 20A Ribbon FET (intel.com)

In a recent article Tom´s Hardware (Anton Shilow, link below) compares the advanced semiconductor technology nodes from industry TSMC and Intel, focusing on TSMC's N3P and N2 nodes against Intel's 20A and 18A nodes. Forecasted for release between 2024 and 2026, these nodes represent the forefront of semiconductor innovation. TSMC's N3P, a 3nm-class node, is set to be available by 2025 and offers performance comparable to Intel's 18A. Interestingly, TSMC's 2nm-class N2, expected in the second half of 2025, is anticipated to outpace Intel's 18A in terms of power, performance, and area advantages. Intel's 20A, arriving in 2024, promises significant advancements by introducing RibbonFET gate-all-around transistors and a backside power delivery network. The subsequent 18A will further refine these innovations. While TSMC leans on its proven FinFET technology for the N3P, it plans to introduce nanosheet GAA transistors in the N2. 

As the semiconductor race intensifies, both companies are heavily invested in outpacing each other, with TSMC focusing on technology maturity and cost-effectiveness, and Intel aiming to regain its technology leadership. The dynamics between these tech giants will shape the semiconductor industry's future.

Comparison of Advanced Semiconductor Technology Nodes: TSMC N3P & N2 vs. Intel 20A & 18A, highlighting the competitive landscape of the semiconductor industry for the years 2024-2026 based on Toms Hardware article below.

Sources: 

TSMC: Our 3nm Node Comparable to Intel's 1.8nm Tech | Tom's Hardware (tomshardware.com)

Intel and TSMC company web pages

Semiconductor Supply Chain Problems Running Rampant?

Solutions to mitigate future materials supply vulnerabilities

By Lita Shon-Roy, MS/MBA, and Sachi Brown, TECHCET CA

Over the past 2 to 3 years, the semiconductor industry has faced extreme pressure to meet growing consumer demand for an abundance of everyday electronic products like cars, smartphones, and computers. This pressure has only been amplified by various supply chain issues stemming from the raw material sources that are essential to building semiconductors. These material dependencies are easy to overlook since they reside in the sub-tier of the semiconductor market, hidden from direct view of what is sold to chip fabricators and consumers. TECHCET, a leading materials supply chain analysis firm, has consistently worked to uncover many of these dependencies, such as for fluorspar, neon, and helium. These materials play an essential role in the supply chain lifeline to the semiconductor industry and require expertise to identify, qualify, and track for the efficient forward movement of the market.

With recent chip shortages, various producers around the world have announced plans to invest in chip expansions that total more than US$500B over the next five years. For the US alone, this equates to an increase of >45% in semiconductor wafer starts by 2026. While this sounds hopeful for resolving chip deficiencies, it still does not address one key weakness: material shortages. As the industry expands, the risk of complications to the semiconductor supply chain grows, elevating the importance for material supply chain tracking and analysis.

Sulfuric acid is one example of an essential material that would put the semiconductor supply chain at risk if its supply is not properly managed. Fortunately, TECHCET has identified a >50% increase in demand for US sulfuric acid by 2026 to help key chip fabs prepare for expansions. TECHCET consistently provides key metrics related to supply and demand to the Critical Materials Council (CMC), a consortium formed in the mid-1990’s made up of chip fabricators and material suppliers. The Council also provides feedback to TECHCET to direct their ongoing supply chain analysis work. Identifying materials-related disruptions, dependencies, and weaknesses within the supply-chain, are all key elements of TECHCET’s focus and benefits to the CMC subscriber members.

In recent years, material shortages from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and COVID-19 have proven to be high stress points for chip fabricators and material suppliers. For example, neon gas faced shortages at the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war, threatening the stability of semiconductor production and causing high anxiety among chip fabs. At the time, it was unknown how much the US and Asia relied on Ukraine for neon supply. TECHCET managed to uncover various dependencies on Ukrainian neon from different regions around the world, helping major chip companies re-evaluate and better stabilize their supply chains. During the COVID pandemic, sporadic and extreme ocean freight roadblocks also contributed to slowdowns in chip manufacturing. In response to these disruptions, CMC subscriber companies met with logistics and shipping port officials to improve mitigation strategies for further supply interruptions.

CMC member subscribers also gain insight into supply chain challenges from the CMC Seminar. The next one will be hosted in Taiwan (October 25) and will focus on current problems in the materials supply chain and future quality requirements. This event is one of several that brings conversation on supply issues to the forefront. These events connect the entire semiconductor ecosystem by providing essential information on critical materials needed by decision makers at chip fabricators, suppliers, and government. The current CMC chip fab subscribers include more than a dozen of the world’s largest chip makers. (Reference: https://cmcfabs.org)

Given the massive impact semiconductors have in our digital global society, there is a growing and persistent need to manage the coming supply-chain issues, especially with expectations for chip volume to sharply ramp come 2025-2026. Looking into the future, TECHCET and the CMC will continue to facilitate coordination among key players in the materials and chip industry to navigate what lies ahead.

For more information on TECHCET: https://techcet.com or https://cmcfabs.org/2023-cmc-seminar/.

Lita Shon-Roy is President/CEO of TECHCET CA LLC, an advisory services firm expert in market analysis and business development of electronic markets and supply-chains for the semiconductor, display, solar/PV, and LED industries.

Sachi Brown is the Marketing Specialist of TECHCET CA LLC, in charge of marketing communications.