ASML's 2023 Outlook: Surging Ahead in Semiconductor Equipment Despite Challenges and Export Controls

In 2023, ASML, the leading semiconductor lithography equipment supplier, is set to achieve remarkable success, outpacing its rivals and emerging as the number 1 provider of Wafer Fabrication Equipment. Boasting an impressive 30% revenue growth forecast for the year, ASML is thriving amidst an industry landscape marked by its consistent performance. With a substantial backlog of cutting-edge Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) and Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) systems and surging demand from China, ASML's growth continues despite hurdles like supply chain disruptions and regulatory changes, ASML remains a beacon of innovation and resilience in the semiconductor sector.

By Abhishek Kumar Thakur and Jonas Sundqvist

ASML, a leading supplier of semiconductor equipment, is poised for a significant year in 2023, projected to surpass Applied Materials (AMAT) as the top provider of Wafer Fabrication Equipment. This achievement is attributed to ASML's robust revenue growth, expected to reach a remarkable 30% increase in 2023, while Applied Materials faces a decline of 20% according to Seeking Alpha*. ASML's success can be attributed to a substantial backlog of Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) and Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) systems, driven by heightened demand in China.

* Fact check: Due to strong DUV revenue and despite the increased uncertainties, ASML expects strong growth for 2023 with a net sales increase towards 30% and a slight improvement in gross margin, relative to 2022. ASML Holding revenue for the twelve months ending June 30, 2023 was $27.293B, a 25.97% increase year-over-year. AMAT revenue is estimated to increase by 2.6% to 26.33 B. Meaning ASML would pass bu end of 2023.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMAT/analysis/ 

Despite facing challenges like supply chain disruptions and a factory fire, ASML has consistently ranked among the top three semiconductor equipment suppliers since 2017. Their backlog of EUV systems, combined with growing acceptance of DUV tools, contributes to their strong performance.

However, potential headwinds include supply chain concerns, past issues like the Berlin factory fire, and looming sanctions affecting exports to China. While ASML has addressed some challenges, the possibility of US sanctions in 2024 poses a threat to its growth.

Furthermore, ASML now faces new export controls imposed by the Netherlands, impacting shipments to China. While the company downplays these controls' immediate financial impact, they are expected to affect specific DUV systems, adding to global efforts to limit China's semiconductor advancements.

In this volatile landscape, ASML's ability to adapt to evolving regulations and maintain its technological leadership will be crucial. The impact of these restrictions, especially on shipments to China, could influence the company's growth trajectory in the semiconductor industry. Despite these challenges, ASML remains a prominent player with significant potential in the semiconductor equipment market.

ASML is set to deliver the industry's first High-NA extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography scanner by the end of 2023, marking a significant development for advanced chip manufacturing. The Twinscan EXE:5000 pilot scanner with a 0.55 numerical aperture (NA) will enable chipmakers to explore High-NA EUV technology. This innovation is crucial for achieving an 8nm resolution, suitable for manufacturing technologies beyond 5nm nodes. Intel is expected to be the first customer, but integration and adoption details are still uncertain. This advancement requires substantial investments, with reports suggesting costs of $300-400 million per unit.

To add some colour, initially, Intel had plans to employ ASML's High-NA tools for its 18A (1.8 nm) production node, scheduled for high-volume manufacturing in 2025, aligning with ASML's Twinscan EXE:5200 delivery. However, Intel accelerated its 18A production, moving it to the latter part of 2024. This change in strategy involved the use of ASML's Twinscan NXE:3600D/3800E with two exposures and Applied Material's Endura Sculpta pattern-shaping system. The objective was to reduce reliance on EUV double patterning techniques. Applied Materials' Centura Sculpta is a pattern-shaping machine equipped with a unique algorithm that can manipulate patterns produced by an EUV scanner. It has the capability to stretch these patterns in a user-defined direction along the X-axis. This process effectively reduces the space between features and enhances pattern density. This means that moving ahead ASML and Applied Materials are entering an interesting competitive space previously not encountered.

ASMLs Products

As an background, ASML specializes in the production of cutting-edge lithography systems crucial for semiconductor manufacturing. Their product portfolio includes the following key offerings:

Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) Lithography Machines: ASML's EUV lithography machines are at the forefront of semiconductor manufacturing technology. These machines use extremely short wavelengths of light to create intricate patterns on silicon wafers, enabling the production of advanced and smaller semiconductor chips. EUV technology is essential for next-generation processors and memory chips.

Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) Lithography Machines: DUV lithography systems are another vital component of ASML's product lineup. They use longer wavelengths of light compared to EUV and are employed for a wide range of semiconductor applications, including memory and logic chip production. ASML's DUV systems are known for their precision and reliability.

TWINSCAN Series: Within the DUV lithography category, ASML offers the TWINSCAN series, which includes machines like the TWINSCAN NXT:2000i, NXT:2050i, and NXT:2100i. These systems are designed for immersion lithography, where the wafer and the lens are submerged in a liquid, enhancing precision and resolution.

EUV High Numerical Aperture (NA) Systems: ASML has been advancing its lithography machines by increasing the numerical aperture (NA), a key parameter that affects resolution. High-NA systems are capable of printing even smaller features on semiconductor wafers, enabling the production of highly advanced chips.

ASML's lithography machines are considered critical infrastructure for semiconductor manufacturing, and the company's technological leadership in this area has positioned it as a dominant player in the industry. The company's ability to innovate and adapt its lithography systems to meet the ever-increasing demands of semiconductor manufacturers has been a key factor in its success and growth prospects. However, the recent export controls and geopolitical pressures, particularly concerning shipments to China, introduce additional challenges and uncertainties for ASML and its specialized products.

Sources:

ASML Hit With New Dutch Limits on Chip Gear Exports to China - Bloomberg

ASML To Top WFE Semiconductor Equipment In 2023, Topping Applied Materials | Seeking Alpha

ASML to ship first pilot tool in its next product line in 2023, CEO says | Reuters

ASML to Deliver First High-NA EUV Tool This Year (anandtech.com)

EUV Alternative Speeds Up Chip Production - EE Times

BALD Engineering - Born in Finland, Born to ALD: ASML Remains on Track to Deliver High NA EUV Machines in 2023

BALD Engineering - Born in Finland, Born to ALD: Netherlands' chip tool export controls take effect for DUV Lithography and ALD

BALD Engineering - Born in Finland, Born to ALD: Applied Materials’ Pattern-Shaping Technology - Centura Sculpta