China's semiconductor industry is at a crossroads, navigating both growth opportunities and significant challenges. As US sanctions restrict access to critical technologies like EUV lithography, China's ambitions in advanced chip manufacturing are stifled, particularly in areas like AI and next-generation devices. While the country remains a strong player in legacy chip production, driven by robust demand from multinational corporations and its booming EV sector, the lack of advanced capabilities limits its ability to compete globally in cutting-edge technologies. At the same time, Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD), a cornerstone for technologies like GAAFET, DRAM, and 3D NAND, is seeing robust growth globally, with leading OEMs like ASMI, TEL, Applied Materials, and Lam Research emphasizing its pivotal role in scaling advanced architectures. However, China’s ALD market is expected to pivot towards supporting legacy nodes, as geopolitical constraints and domestic manufacturing dynamics shape its future. This evolving landscape underscores a shift in focus, with global players capitalizing on innovation while China's market transitions towards domestic and legacy-driven demand.
China’s semiconductor industry experienced slowing growth in October, reflecting the impact of looming US sanctions on advanced chip manufacturing. While legacy chip production and the EV sector drove industrial growth, advanced semiconductor capabilities remain constrained by restrictions on critical lithography equipment, such as ASML's EUV tools. This has stifled China’s ambitions in leading-edge technologies used in smartphones and AI. Despite producing 353 billion IC units from January to October, a 24.8% year-on-year increase, most of this growth was in legacy chips, heavily demanded by multinational corporations and export markets. Advanced production, meanwhile, lags behind as companies like TSMC and Samsung tighten services to Chinese firms, reflecting a broader global effort to limit China's technological advancement. These restrictions have heightened China's dependence on imported chips, which reached $315 billion in the first 10 months of 2024.
This chart shows the production output of integrated circuits (in hundred million units). China's IC production reflects the semiconductor cycle. The Chinese government sees semiconductors as an important focus for domestic production based on its Made in China 2025 plan. Note: Data for February are the cumulative total of January and February combined.
In Applied Materials' Q4 2024 earnings call, CEO Gary Dickerson highlighted the company's advancements in ALD technology. He emphasized that ALD is crucial for enabling next-generation semiconductor architectures, particularly in the development of gate-all-around transistors and advanced packaging solutions. Dickerson noted that Applied Materials' leadership in ALD positions the company to meet the increasing demand for energy-efficient computing and artificial intelligence applications. Applied Materials reported strong Q4 2024 earnings, highlighting the significant role of China despite challenges from US restrictions. China contributed approximately 30% of revenue, normalized after elevated demand for DRAM and NAND earlier in the year. The company's revenue from ICAPS (IoT, communications, automotive, power, and sensors) nodes remains strong in China, though potential slowing in automotive and industrial sectors may impact future growth. Applied is focusing on advanced materials engineering for cutting-edge technologies like gate-all-around transistors and high-bandwidth memory, areas critical for AI and energy-efficient computing. While China remains a key market for legacy technologies, restrictions on leading-edge technology sales are reshaping Applied’s growth trajectory, emphasizing global collaboration and innovation outside China. Looking ahead, Applied anticipates steady ICAPS demand and continued contributions from China at current levels.
Is the China market gloomy in ALD Equipment demand - hwat does the Tier 1 OMEs report on future ALD demand?
ALD is increasingly vital in semiconductor manufacturing, particularly for Gate-All-Around Field-Effect Transistors (GAAFET), DRAM, and 3D NAND technologies. Leading equipment manufacturers—ASM International (ASMI), Tokyo Electron (TEL), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Lam Research (LAM)—have highlighted ALD's significance in these areas.
ASM International:
ASMI has reported strong demand for its ALD equipment, driven by applications in advanced semiconductor nodes. The company noted that artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing are propelling the need for GAAFET structures, where ALD processes are essential for precise material deposition. ASMI's recent financial results reflect this trend, with increased bookings attributed to robust demand in these sectors.
Tokyo Electron:
TEL has been focusing on developing ALD technologies to enhance its position in the 3D NAND market. The company announced advancements aimed at improving 3D NAND flash memory production, positioning itself as a competitor to Lam Research in this domain. TEL's efforts underscore the growing importance of ALD in fabricating complex 3D structures required for high-density memory applications.
Applied Materials:
AMAT has emphasized its leadership in materials engineering, including ALD, to support next-generation semiconductor architectures like GAAFETs. The company highlighted that ALD is crucial for developing advanced transistors and packaging solutions, which are essential for energy-efficient computing and AI applications. AMAT's focus on ALD aligns with the industry's shift towards more complex device structures.
Lam Research:
LAM has been at the forefront of ALD technology, particularly for memory applications. The company introduced the ALTUS® Max E Series, featuring an all-ALD low-fluorine tungsten fill process, addressing challenges in scaling 3D NAND and DRAM devices. This innovation enables the production of higher aspect ratio structures with improved performance, demonstrating ALD's critical role in advancing memory technologies.
In summary, leading OEMs recognize ALD as a pivotal technology for advancing semiconductor manufacturing, especially in GAAFET, DRAM, and 3D NAND applications. The continuous development and adoption of ALD processes are essential to meet the industry's evolving demands for higher performance and greater efficiency.
China's demand for ALD equipment reflects a mixed outlook, influenced by geopolitical restrictions and market dynamics. Advanced semiconductor manufacturing in China faces constraints due to limited access to critical tools like EUV lithography, stifling progress in leading-edge applications like AI and smartphones. However, the market for legacy chip production remains robust, with strong output driven by demand from multinational corporations and export markets. Leading OEMs like Applied Materials and Lam Research report sustained engagement in the Chinese market, particularly in legacy nodes and AI-driven technologies, though future growth may slow due to challenges in automotive and industrial sectors. Despite these hurdles, Tier 1 OEMs, including ASML, have seen better-than-expected sales in China, highlighting its continued relevance in the global semiconductor landscape. Given that ALD is expected to have double digit growth for GAAFET, DRAM and NAND in leading edge nodes and memory going 3D the China market may be less important looking ahead and will transform to a legacy market for domestic and possibly Korean ALD OEMs.
Sources:
Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
https://www.techedt.com/chinas-chip-production-slows-in-october-as-us-sanctions-loom
https://en.macromicro.me/collections/4345/mm-semiconductor/316/cn-china-output-of-integrated-circuit
No comments:
Post a Comment