ASM Intertnational released their Q2/2016 report today and here below is the ALD Market Outlook according to ASMi. The Earnings call will be tomorrow so possibly more interesting information will be given then.
- 2015 has shown a strong growth of the single wafer ALD market. We estimate this growth to continue whereby the single wafer ALD equipment market will double in the period 2015-2018/2019. We however expect the single wafer ALD market to show a double digit decline in 2016, caused by a low demand in Memory which will not be offset by the strong increase in Logic/Foundries. Our single wafer ALD market share is expected to show an increase in 2016. We expect the single wafer ALD market to strongly improve again in 2017.
- In Memory, the NAND market is shifting from Planar NAND to 3D NAND. This shift will significantly reduce the demand for additional multi patterning-related single wafer ALD capacity. Non-patterning related single wafer ALD demand is expected to gradually increase as soon as next generation 3D NAND is going to ramp into high volume.
- In Memory, DRAM industry capacity demand was high in 2015 and has declined strongly in 2016. Based on current visibility the demand for new DRAM-related single wafer ALD capacity is believed to recover earliest in the course of 2017.
- In Logic/Foundry the transition to the 10 nm technology node fuels substantially higher single wafer ALD-equipment demand than the previous nodes.